Niger's Uranium Rift with France: A Symbol of Post-Coup Transformation and Geopolitical Realignment

Niger's military regime, which ousted pro-French President Mohamed Bazoum in July 2023, has taken a decisive step to diminish France’s influence in the country’s uranium sector, intensifying a broader geopolitical and economic shift in West Africa. This week, the junta assumed operational control of Somaïr, the Niger-based uranium mining subsidiary of French nuclear firm Orano, effectively blocking the resumption of uranium exports and pushing the company into financial turmoil.

A Blow to France’s Energy Strategy

Niger supplies 25% of the uranium used in Europe’s nuclear power plants, including France’s 56 reactors, which generate 65% of its electricity—a cornerstone of its carbon-reduction strategy. With France ending domestic uranium production over 20 years ago, it has relied heavily on imports, particularly from Niger, which accounted for 20% of France's uranium imports in the past decade.

The junta’s actions threaten to cut off this supply, forcing France to seek alternatives from countries like Kazakhstan, Namibia, Australia, and Canada. However, these shifts come with political and logistical challenges, especially as European uranium imports from Russia have risen by 70% in the past year—a politically uncomfortable dependency amid sanctions on Moscow for the Ukraine war.

Geopolitical Undercurrents

The conflict over Niger’s uranium supply underscores growing anti-French sentiment and a realignment of alliances in the Sahel region. Following the coup, Niger’s military leaders have turned toward Russia, which has established influence in neighboring Burkina Faso and Mali through Wagner Group military contractors.

In this environment, France’s post-colonial legacy in Niger’s uranium industry has become a focal point of resentment. Critics in Niger accuse Orano of exploiting local resources at unfair prices, fueling perceptions of ongoing neo-colonialism. The junta, buoyed by rising oil exports via a new Chinese-built pipeline, appears willing to sever economic ties with its former colonial ruler, even at the cost of immediate economic pain.

Economic and Local Impacts

The export paralysis has left Somaïr with 1,150 tonnes of uranium concentrate worth approximately $210 million stranded in storage, forcing Orano to halt production and prioritize worker salaries. This has exacerbated tensions with the government, which canceled Orano's rights to develop a promising new uranium deposit at Imouraren earlier this year.

For Niger's economy, the loss of uranium export revenues and potential job cuts could have severe consequences, particularly for communities in the desert north, such as Arlit, where the uranium industry is a lifeline. However, the junta’s financial resilience, bolstered by oil revenues, allows it to prioritize its political agenda over economic concessions.

Global Implications

1. For France and Europe: Losing Niger as a supplier would increase reliance on uranium from Russia and other politically sensitive sources, undermining efforts to counter President Vladimir Putin during the Ukraine conflict.
2. For Niger: By dismantling its traditional uranium partnership with France, Niger may pursue partnerships with countries like China, Russia, and even Iran, raising concerns about the potential diversion of uranium for non-civilian purposes.
3. For the Sahel: The situation highlights the broader geopolitical realignment in the region, as military juntas in Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso embrace anti-Western stances and align more closely with Moscow.

Conclusion

The uranium dispute between Niger and France symbolizes a seismic shift in Niger’s foreign policy and economic strategy, driven by anti-colonial nationalism and a quest for new alliances. While the immediate costs are significant for both sides, the long-term consequences could reshape the dynamics of energy supply, international partnerships, and geopolitical influence in Africa and beyond.